In mid September last year, Jack Ma, the famous Alibaba co-founder, warned that the trade war between the U.S and China was: “going to last long, it’s going to be a mess, it could last for 20 years”, calling it a couple of months latter, “the most stupid thing in this world”. Well, apart from some misguided optimism in the first quarter of 2019, investors have come to realize that it sure isn’t the done deal they were promised by president Trump.
IPhoto by Kayla Velasquez
In fact its now more clear what was already a certain fact in 2018, China isn’t the hopeless sleeping giant from 20 years ago, not only its the second biggest economy in the world but has, in certain countries, more hard and soft power than anyone else, not to mention a monopoly in some key areas, like rare earth metals and cobalt, essential elements for nowadays technology, such has batteries. Which means that it will be at least a battle of equals, China will not allow any interference in its internal affairs, for example, to verify compliance within any intellectual property agreement, so buckle up for a bumpy ride, unless of course, Trump backs down, which is equally unrealistic.