The countdown to the US election is drawing into sharper focus and as the odds of a Biden victory increase (implied probability went up from 65 to 69.2% over the weekend), investors are betting on the likeliest scenarios for oil in the next few years. A Biden victory could see less support for the shale oil industry, pulling up the oil price as a result. Vice versa, if Trump manages to defeat forecasts, shale oil would probably benefit from the tycoon’s help. Despite this, Trump could be supportive for the barrel through any potential new stimulus, which could boost (or drug?) the economy further.
From a technical point of view, WTI remains just below $40, after the price slipped yesterday. Investors are waiting for oil industry reports due out today to provide new directionality to the price.
Chief analyst at ActivTrades and technical analyst for Italian newspaper 'La Stampa'. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a weekly commentator for CNBC Italy and a columnist for La Stampa. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a 250-pages book on gold and the gold market, followed in 2018 by a new updated edition.
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© 2019 High Leverage FX - All Rights Reserved.