In the weeks following the economic shock resulting from the quarantine measures adopted by the US government, many options were anticipated by analysts as to the type of recovery that would develop, with the most optimistic referring to the V, while the pessimists indicated an L style, with a very slow and gradual recovery. As the months went by, what really happened was an attempt to recover very quickly, in V therefore, however, what the most recent data point out is that such a primary acceleration movement was not sustained, not least because a good part of it was supported by the US government and central bank aid packages. It was like an injection of adrenaline, but like this it had a positive effect but of limited duration.
Photo by Gemma Evans.
In fact, it was not for lack of warnings, namely by the one who is probably better placed to do so, the President of the FED, that investors were mistaken, given that Powell has been saying for some months that the road to recovery will be long, especially in the labour market, where the technological disruption accelerated by the pandemic dictated the lower demand for human resources in the short term. Now, in the absence of new stimuli and with a presidential election, which promises to be an unhealthy process, the economy seems to be losing breath by projecting some analysts a recovery in W, that is, with a passage through the minimum levels after the beginning of the pandemic, or at least close to them. If so, the return to a more robust growth may only occur at the end of the year or even only in 2021, so the very important Christmas festive season is being considered as the all or nothing of 2019, hence the behaviour of Wall Street is expected to be quite stirred by the end of the first quarter of next year.
