The market is rich in surprising events, namely because in most cases the news is already incorporated in the prices, validating the famous motto of “buy on the rumour and sell on the news”, which in practice results in movements opposite to what was expected before the details of the event are known, such as what happened to US sovereign debt interest rates at the conclusion of the last Fed meeting, when the cost of the 10-year debt fell below 1.5%, despite being clear on that day, the main central bank’s monetary policy would change to a less dovish scenario, that is, with the prospect of a rise in interest rates in the medium to long term, in addition to the reduction of the asset purchase program.
Now, after a few days and after the non-farm payrolls that revealed a good recovery in the labour market, an important variable for the Fed’s monetary policy, the interest on this same debt dropped to 1.37%, a level that occurred for the last time. time in late February. A reduction derived from the Institute for Supply Management’s services index, which came out on Tuesday, and which revealed a retreat to 60.1, well below the expected 63.5 and after reaching 64 in May, immediately triggering an important question. Will the increase in inflation that is predicted to be temporary be accompanied by a sharp growth that is also temporary? If so, the short-medium-term scenario changes significantly with regard to the FED’s pace, also conditioning the US dollar, which however continues to show strength, and may even validate a bullish signal that may pave the way to the level of parity against the Euro.
