The euro is showing signs of stabilizing against the US dollar after last week’s move back under the 1.1000 level largely struggled from a lack of fresh selling interest.
Therefore, the risk is to the upside, especially since riskier asset classes, such as stocks and cryptos are rapidly moving higher, and approaching bull market territory again.
For all intents and purposes, what happens this week for the EURUSD pair could well set the tone for the rest of April. We could well see a short squeeze in the EURUSD pair right upto the next FED meeting.
Jobs data from the United States will be a huge focus this week. With most traders eyes glued on the bond market, and as traders start to reprice the debt market amidst an expect 50 basis point rate hike next month.
On the technical front, EURUSD bulls need to move the price above the 1.1150 resistance level this week to really raise the odds of a wider recovery towards the 1.1400 level.
Sentiment is in favour of a correction to the downside this week. The ActivTrader market sentiment tool shows that some 68% of traders are currently bullish towards the EURUSD pair.
However, I think that we probably need to see EURUSD traders turning wholesale negative before the EURUSD pair goes full short-term technically bullish.
EURUSD Short-Term Technical Analysis
The four-hour time frame continues to show that the EURUSD pair has started to break under a bearish rising wedge type price pattern, however the downside momentum is lacking.
According to the four-hour time frame, the price trend is still bearish while the price is capped under 1.1080 in the short-term. Additionally, bulls need to move the price above the 1.1150 level to change the short-term trend.
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EURUSD Medium-Term Technical Analysis
Looking at the daily time frame, the EURUSD pair has bounced from the bottom of a huge triangle pattern, which is very encouraging for medium-term bulls.
I would also like to add that the EURUSD pairs 200-day moving average could act as a magnet for the price if bulls continue to make upside traction this week.
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