The technical analysis identifies a downward channel for the Brent price, which had its first (maximum) point at the end of September 2018, its second (minimum) point at the end of December of the same year, and the third point (new) maximum) at the beginning of January 2020, creating a fourth point (downline) that was effectively broken down in March 2020, after which the price returned to the same channel and finally carried out a successful test at the beginning of November last year, to that bottom line as an effective support zone. At this stage, the price approaches the upper line of the channel, which has $61.7 as the location for extraordinary resistance, that is less than 10% in relation to the $58.5 per barrel that is worth today.
This bullish movement that had its genesis at the time of the announcement of vaccines last November, due to the prospects of a return of economic activity to normal, may be close to losing gas, not only due to the technical barrier I have mentioned but also due to the ongoing disruption in the mobility sector, as well as Joe Biden’s political agenda that favours “Green Energy”. All the conditions are created to reinforce the pressure that already existed on the big oil companies in order to restructure their businesses with a view to producing energy using other less polluting raw materials, which will result in a significant change in their production models.
A clear indication of the loss of relevance of Crude in the economy of the present, but in particular of the economy of the future, is the capitalization of the biggest oil companies, which today are in the order of 10% in relation to the great technologies, when two decades ago companies like the ExxonMobil and Chevron were among the most valuable on the market, it remains to be seen whether they have managed to adapt to the new times or how Crude will lose even more relevance in the coming decades.
